“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
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~ Annie Duke
You’re “All In”… what eloquently powerful words… often uttered with a spirit of excitement!
How wonderful it is… when everything goes as planned for a long time!
How often has everything gone as planned for a long time?
Oh… the sizzling thrill of the All-In Dance… it makes even the sexy Tango… look like your grandparent’s polka!
Life is far from simple, although we’re constantly and understandably attempting to make it simple. Let’s take a look at this All-In Dance by breaking it down into subcomponents, so we can at least objectively, identify our probability of success.
The first step is the most important step… determining if we should take part in the All In Dance. The rest of the dance will play out as it should, unless Lady Luck intervenes to smile on you… or growl at you, regardless of the probability of success.
The three forks: 1) All In, 2) Test the Waters, 3) Pass, on our proverbial Road of Life, is where we use the following interdependent core competencies to decide the best option for us to pursue.
- Vision for Possibility (VfP) – The ability for you to accurately see what could be possible with each choice.
- Vision for Forfeiture (VfF) – The ability for you to accurately forecast what is likely to be forfeited with each choice.
- Holistic Decision Making Quality (DMQ) – The objective quality level of your decisions.
- Execution-Excellence (Ex-Ex) – The objective ability for you to execute your decisions.
- Lady Luck (LL) – Regardless of any competencies above, you get Lucky or Unlucky.
Simple, But Not a Valid, Formula for Probability of Success: Figure out your Objective Score for VfP, VfF, DMQ, Ex-Ex and LL; then add them together and divide by 5 (number of scores) to get your average probability of success.
Example: VfP=6.0, VfF=4.0, DMQ=5.0, Ex-Ex=4.0 and LL=9.0 (you feel lucky)
(6.0 + 4.0 + 5.0 + 4.0 + 9.0) / 5 = 5.6 Overall Average Success Level… if all variables are equal, you have a 56% or an Average chance of success in this example.
However, from Math 101, we know in order to get the probability of success overall, we must multiple each individual probability of success by every other individual probability of success, to get the overall probability of success.
Thus; we need to convert each of our Core Competency Scores on a scale of 0.0 to 10.0 into a percentage and then use the math formula, to determine our overall probability of success.
Thus; 60% x 40% x 50% x 40% x 90% = 4.3% (less than 5%) Overall Probability of Success (vs. the inflated 56% calculated above).
Summary: The All In Dance is great when one of 3 things happens.
- Lady Luck smiles on you, regardless of your objective competency levels.
- Your talent in the core competencies is objectively (key) high.
- Your talent in the core competencies is subjectively high, but objectively low, and everyone around you thinks they won anyway, even if it doesn’t objectively turn out well.
Takeaway: Use this materially-accurate formula to make the best, objective decisions at jugular forks
on your Road of Life… professionally, personally and in the community.
Are you Intelligently All In on Making A Difference for the world’s next generation of leaders?
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Get MAD! Get Making A Difference! ~ JR
